The Bet
Julian Simon, an outspoken economist, challenged renowned scientist Paul Ehrlich to a bet in 1980. Their bet on the future prices of five metals sparked popular interest as a predictor of future wealth or calamity. Rising population, according to Ehrlich, will lead to overconsumption, resource shortages, and starvation, with cataclysmic repercussions for humanity. Simon replied that, owing to flexible markets, technological advancement, and our combined inventiveness, human wellbeing will increase.
The discussion between Simon and Ehrlich mirrored a growing national divide over the planet's destiny. The Bet intertwines the lives and views of the two men with the era's contentious political battles over the environment and government's role. Paul Sabin shows how the fight between Ehrlich and Simon—between environmental fears and free-market confidence—helped to create the chasm that exists today between environmentalists and their critics in a lively narrative that spans the 1960s through the pivotal presidential election between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan and on into the 1990s. Sabin contends that social values, rather than economic or biological absolutes, should be used to guide society's critical decisions about climate change, the planet's health, and our own.
